Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d82…244d sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-5%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$80
14 days−$63
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$101
other 28% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -31.6% -38.1% 37% 29% -16.2%
≤30d 99 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 31% -13.4%
≤90d 99 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 31% -13.4%
all 99 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 31% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 31% -13.4%
10% -33.8% 24% -21.7%
15% -40.2% 19% -29.2%
20% -46.1% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage22d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $49 +$11 +23%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $68 +$12 +17%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $15 −$3 -21%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $18 −$9 -52%
Set Handicap: Marozsan (-2.5) vs Tirante (+2.5) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $76 +$24 +32%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 +$10 +96%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $20 −$6 -30%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $60 +$11 +18%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $28 +$12 +41%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $117 +$13 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $14 −$2 -17%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $143 −$137 -96%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $81 +$19 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$10 -38%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 +$1 +8%
Set Handicap: Gaston (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5) Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Hugo Gaston vs. Moez Echargui: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $7 −$5 -64%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -34%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $4 $0 -9%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $87 +$18 +21%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $0 $0 -94%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$3 -50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1 −$1 -93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 +43%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -59%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 −$2 -50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $4 −$3 -71%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $14 +$6 +39%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 +$3 +49%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $77 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $60 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $80 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $68 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $8 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $12 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $19 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $12 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $105 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $9 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $6 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2h
Set Handicap: Marozsan (-2.5) vs Tirante (+2.5) BUY Tirante 4¢ $0 3h
Set Handicap: Marozsan (-2.5) vs Tirante (+2.5) BUY Tirante 6¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 17¢ $5 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $76 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 35h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 37¢ $14 40h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $60 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 45h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 45h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 45h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 60¢ $12 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records