Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d81…259b weather 623 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,116 (-11%) realized −$14,117 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate73%451W / 168L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$527
weather 22% −$749
finance 17% −$142
crypto 13% −$1,288
other 11% −$1,709
sports 4% −$249
politics 2% −$7
tech 1% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 44% -11.6%
≤30d 109 -3.1% -12.4% 66% 22% -13.3%
≤90d 358 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 20% -12.4%
all 619 -1.9% -11.2% 73% 28% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 28% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 12% -21.0%
15% -27.5% 5% -28.7%
20% -34.6% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$62 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$14,117
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses451 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)619 / 623
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$208
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $116 $114 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+56%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $220 −$4 -2%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $220 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 +$3 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $43 +$57 +133%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $135 +$14 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 −$3 -49%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $348 −$108 -31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $28 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $111 +$58 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $80 +$4 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $89 −$12 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $1,011 −$15 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$10 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$40 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $93 −$35 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$5 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,629 −$40 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $202 +$27 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$5 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $634 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $124 +$9 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,106 −$12 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $57 +$20 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 10 $70 −$13 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 09 $139 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $63 +$6 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 08 $141 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $75 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $89 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $109 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $408 −$378 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 08 $170 −$2 -1%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $42 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 07 $280 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $79 +$13 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $159 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $240 +$10 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 05 $312 −$21 -7%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 05 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $22 15m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 16m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 16m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 55¢ $216 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 55¢ $216 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $63 2h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 2h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 2h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 2h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 55¢ $220 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $54 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $40 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $111 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $20 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $100 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $13 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $149 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.35 · official $148.35 (match) · 3500 history records