Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d7f…7385 other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$38
sports 24% −$16
politics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$1
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage127d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $354 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $633 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $453 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $457 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $129 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $382 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $753 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $152 +$1 +0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $187 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $288 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $135 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $409 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 4h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 15h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 16h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 22h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 24h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $18 29h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $18 31h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 37h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 38h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 40h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 42h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 43h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 44h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 3d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 3d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1301 history records