Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d7e…e4da crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$7
other 27% −$5
sports 18% −$7
world 14% −$5
crypto 2% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 70 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage560d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Meta dip to $500 in April? May 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? Apr 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? Feb 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $235 in November? Dec 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $2,470 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $2,344 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $2,300 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $2,457 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $2,382 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $2,415 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Sep 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $987 −$1 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $983 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $991 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1.5b and $2b on Feb 21 Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will ETHBTC be less than .028 on February 7? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 20 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 18 $1 $0 +10%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 12 $2 $0 +1%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? Dec 13 $21 $0 -0%
Bills vs. Lions Dec 13 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 30d
Will Meta dip to $500 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 61d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $52 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 86d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $52 87d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $42 149d
Will Google dip to $235 in November? BUY No 100¢ $3 205d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $52 206d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,465 239d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,470 239d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,342 239d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,344 239d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,297 239d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,300 239d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,455 239d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,457 239d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,379 239d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,382 239d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,412 239d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,415 239d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 243d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $1 299d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 99¢ $1 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 361d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 391d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 392d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 421d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.89 · official $48.89 (match) · 188 history records