Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d7e…3de7 weather 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$442 (+28%) realized +$442 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$534
14 days+$534
30 days+$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$534
weather 24% +$14
sports 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.3% -7.4% 27% 27% +31.8%
≤30d 11 +2.3% -7.4% 27% 27% +31.8%
≤90d 27 -7.1% -15.9% 37% 33% +22.5%
all 27 -7.1% -15.9% 37% 33% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 33% +22.5%
10% -24.0% 30% +10.8%
15% -31.3% 30% +0.1%
20% -38.0% 11% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$12 · ×6.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage49d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $33 +$215 +655%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $68 −$67 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $6 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$18 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$6 -58%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $995 +$419 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? May 10 $55 +$45 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? May 10 $30 −$14 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 9? May 09 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 9? May 09 $20 −$10 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? May 09 $61 +$22 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $20 −$10 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 9? May 09 $31 −$7 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9? May 09 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 9? May 09 $20 −$6 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8? May 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8? May 08 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? SELL Yes 100¢ $248 45m
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 13¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 26¢ $68 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan $1 4d
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,414 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $995 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? BUY Yes $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? BUY Yes $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 44d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 44d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12? BUY Yes $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records