Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7D 0x7d7a…d48d sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$897 (+206%) realized +$940 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$918
7 days+$908
14 days+$891
30 days+$889
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$873
other 6% −$26
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +126.0% +104.5% 33% 33% +256.6%
≤30d 14 +27.7% +15.5% 21% 21% +233.9%
≤90d 14 +27.7% +15.5% 21% 21% +233.9%
all 14 +27.7% +15.5% 21% 21% +233.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 21% +233.9%
10% +4.4% 21% +201.9%
15% -5.6% 21% +172.7%
20% -14.9% 21% +146.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +268% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +268% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$3 · ×103.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.1 per $1 lost it wins $28.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$940
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage20d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 19¢ 10¢ $97 $54 −$43 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $34 +$319 +930%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $264 +$599 +227%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$3 +331%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 19¢ $99 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 85¢ $353 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $864 15h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $34 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $264 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND A BUY 0¢ $0 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U BUY 1¢ $0 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND A BUY 1¢ $0 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Ira BUY 1¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.65 · official $48.54 · 26 history records