Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7d78…29a5 sports 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46,243 (-5%) realized −$43,511 · open −$2,732
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%127W / 128L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,790per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$6,194est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$16,936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$14,534
other 9% −$1,622
crypto 7% −$33,342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -76.5% -78.8% 17% 10% -25.7%
≤30d 113 -54.1% -58.5% 36% 22% -23.6%
≤90d 255 -33.5% -39.9% 50% 31% -21.9%
all 255 -33.5% -39.9% 50% 31% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.9% 31% -21.9%
10% -45.6% 23% -29.4%
15% ← realistic here -50.9% 16% -36.2%
20% -55.7% 12% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$4,676) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,847 vs −$2,947 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$16,936
Realized−$43,511
Unrealized−$2,732
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses127 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$6,194
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 202
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$4,790
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 78¢ $19,667 $16,936 −$2,732 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $860 −$860 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $456 −$456 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2PM ET Jun 17 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $3,331 −$2,862 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $636 −$636 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $700 −$700 -100%
Mavericks vs. Magic Jun 17 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $420 −$420 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7AM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3,901 −$3,901 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $933 −$933 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1PM ET Jun 17 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,133 −$1,133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2,715 −$2,715 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1,385 −$1,385 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,832 −$1,832 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3,083 −$3,083 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $705 −$705 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5,605 −$5,605 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,970 −$1,970 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,712 −$1,712 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $582 −$582 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $640 −$640 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,873 −$1,873 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,717 −$1,717 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $994 −$994 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $11,009 −$11,009 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,618 −$1,618 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $5,336 −$5,336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9AM ET Jun 17 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2,763 −$2,763 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3,431 −$3,431 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3,150 −$3,150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$97 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,916 −$1,916 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $7,891 −$7,891 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10AM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $986 −$986 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $2,333 −$2,333 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $19,726 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $27 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $27 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $25 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $12 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $55 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $270 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $364 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $738 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $1,217 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $1,725 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $19,636 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $37 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $28 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $63 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $962 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $45 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $21 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $45 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $29 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $662 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $115 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $8 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $4,091 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $1,675 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $2 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $97 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $143 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $5,724 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,935.61 · official $16,935.61 (match) · 3500 history records