Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d75…b4a8 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-2%) realized −$78 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%30W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day230.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -13.5% -21.8% 49% 46% -28.0%
≤30d 61 -13.5% -21.8% 49% 46% -28.0%
≤90d 61 -13.5% -21.8% 49% 46% -28.0%
all 61 -13.5% -21.8% 49% 46% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover230.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 46% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 36% -34.9%
15% -36.1% 28% -41.2%
20% -42.4% 23% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses30 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day230.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 11¢ 50¢ $10 $46 +$36 (+363%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$4 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$13 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$11 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $118 +$73 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $86 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $117 +$39 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$58 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $67 −$25 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $202 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $18 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.29 · official $46.29 (match) · 262 history records