Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d6e…e375 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-12%) realized −$155 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%50W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$142
other 15% −$16
sports 11% −$30
finance 5% −$67
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -14.2% -22.4% 51% 43% -19.8%
≤30d 85 -14.3% -22.5% 51% 44% -19.5%
≤90d 85 -14.3% -22.5% 51% 44% -19.5%
all 104 -18.8% -26.5% 48% 38% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 38% -30.4%
10% -33.5% 29% -37.0%
15% -39.9% 22% -43.1%
20% -45.8% 18% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$155
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses50 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage396d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $15 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 57m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $29 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.09 · official $33.09 (match) · 312 history records