Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d6e…1a6c world 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$2
other 16% +$3
politics 16% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.7% -11.9% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 19 -4.8% -13.9% 21% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -4.8% -13.9% 19% 5% -9.6%
all 45 -4.1% -13.2% 36% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 4% -9.4%
10% -21.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -29.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage457d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $72 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $9 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $78 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $61 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $77 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $6 −$1 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $2 +$1 +36%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 23 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $14 +$3 +24%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $40 24m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $36 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $36 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $37 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $9 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records