Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d6d…a087 crypto 248 markets active 5h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$737 (+1%) realized +$809 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate84%203W / 40L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days+$45
14 days+$122
30 days+$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 67% +$873
other 10% −$102
sports 9% +$125
tech 7% −$109
crypto 7% −$148
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.0% -9.5% 82% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 42 +2.7% -7.1% 90% 5% -8.8%
≤90d 218 -3.7% -12.8% 84% 6% -9.0%
all 243 -3.4% -12.6% 84% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 6% -8.9%
10% -21.0% 4% -17.6%
15% -28.6% 3% -25.6%
20% -35.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$809
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses203 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions5
Markets (closed)243 / 248
History coverage628d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $122 $41 −$81 (-66%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,583 −$77 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,606 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,600 +$6 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,585 +$15 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4,263 +$1 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,582 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,580 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3,672 +$58 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4,459 +$4 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,529 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,511 +$16 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $3,025 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $3,427 +$12 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $3,599 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,853 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,200 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $3,050 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1,525 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $4,135 +$10 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $3,024 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,512 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2,005 +$4 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2,992 +$22 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,485 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2,955 +$12 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $874 +$18 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $1,450 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1,448 +$5 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,261 +$43 +3%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $137 +$3 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $4,524 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $5,375 +$124 +2%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $1,312 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $2,599 +$24 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1,101 +$10 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1,242 +$6 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $1,025 +$9 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $235 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $986 +$262 +27%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $988 +$8 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $984 +$4 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $954 +$28 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $794 +$75 +10%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $57 +$2 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $823 +$52 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $679 +$139 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,484 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $500 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $988 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $1,606 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 100¢ $1,606 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $1,606 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $1,600 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $1,600 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $1,585 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $12 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $15 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 100¢ $358 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $21 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $182 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $145 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 100¢ $11 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 100¢ $475 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.32 · official $90.38 (match) · 1364 history records