Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d6d…780e sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$7
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$5
other 22% +$15
world 11% −$12
politics 4% −$1
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +10.3% -0.2% 51% 51% -3.6%
≤30d 51 +6.0% -4.1% 49% 49% -6.5%
≤90d 51 +6.0% -4.1% 49% 49% -6.5%
all 51 +6.0% -4.1% 49% 49% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 49% -6.5%
10% -13.3% 47% -15.5%
15% -21.6% 43% -23.6%
20% -29.3% 41% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)51 / 65
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 70¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 54¢ 78¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 37¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-72%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 27¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+113%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $2 +$2 +116%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +137%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +81%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +69%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$6 +143%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +116%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +223%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +132%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$8 +384%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +137%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$7 +321%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +107%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +156%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +170%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 −$2 -29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$1 +53%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 1h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 45¢ $2 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $2 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $2 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $2 32h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $2 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $2 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $2 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 65¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $4 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $2 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 4¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.36 · official $35.57 (match) · 114 history records