Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d68…4bd3 crypto 48 markets active 4h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$154 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$159
finance 20% −$96
world 13% +$367
other 12% −$18
politics 9% −$117
sports 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 10 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤90d 13 -9.3% -17.9% 46% 46% -13.9%
all 46 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 39% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -4.3%
10% -26.4% 26% -13.4%
15% -33.5% 22% -21.8%
20% -40.0% 15% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage146d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $265 $148 −$117 (-44%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $100 −$21 -21%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $128 +$81 +63%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 07 $58 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 26 $298 −$112 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 06 $282 +$16 +6%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 04 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$17 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 03 $0 $0 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $140 +$327 +233%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 26 $90 +$6 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 25 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 25 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 25 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 25 $38 −$35 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 25 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 25 $77 +$19 +25%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 22 $4 +$3 +69%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 22 $110 +$8 +7%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 22 $10 +$3 +33%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 22 $20 −$6 -32%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 22 $110 +$13 +12%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 22 $11 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 22 $2 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 22 $10 +$21 +208%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $79 6d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $265 70d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 70d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $57 70d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $58 77d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL Yes 19¢ $58 82d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $128 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL Yes 85¢ $128 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 66¢ $298 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 72¢ $298 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 68¢ $282 102d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 104d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 104d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $27 104d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $10 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 105d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 107d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.16 · official $207.16 (match) · 206 history records