Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d67…4d3e crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$944 (+11%) realized −$423 · open +$1,367
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%31W / 63L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,098
7 days−$2,098
14 days−$2,098
30 days−$2,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$1,244
sports 22% +$880
finance 10% +$2,093
other 5% +$496
economics 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -98.7% -98.8% 0% 0% -98.6%
≤30d 25 -91.8% -92.6% 4% 4% -98.2%
≤90d 71 -42.4% -47.9% 27% 25% -55.3%
all 94 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 32% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% +0.9%
10% -24.5% 30% -8.8%
15% -31.8% 30% -17.6%
20% -38.5% 30% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$67 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$2,630
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$1,367
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses31 / 63
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage178d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $1,263 $2,630 +$1,367 (+108%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $497 −$490 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $110 −$75 -69%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 10 $76 +$106 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 10 $40 +$40 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 10 $136 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 10 $33 +$91 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 10 $33 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 10 $64 +$73 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 05 $38 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 05 $18 +$21 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 05 $50 +$67 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 04 $29 −$21 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 04 $152 +$144 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 04 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 04 $70 +$80 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 04 $140 −$82 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 04 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 04 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 04 $132 +$149 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 04 $55 +$68 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $572 50m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $711 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $497 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $35 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 4¢ $33 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $110 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 24d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 57¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $27 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $32 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $34 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $40 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $33 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $33 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $35 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,629.83 · official $2,617.99 (match) · 382 history records