Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d64…3940 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,506 (+14%) realized +$2,524 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate88%30W / 4L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,669
7 days+$2,394
14 days+$2,394
30 days+$2,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$2,935
crypto 14% +$4
other 12% −$559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +11.5% +0.9% 73% 67% +7.0%
≤30d 19 +9.1% -1.3% 79% 53% +6.4%
≤90d 34 +5.2% -4.9% 88% 29% +4.5%
all 34 +5.2% -4.9% 88% 29% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 29% +4.5%
10% -14.0% 29% -5.5%
15% -22.3% 26% -14.7%
20% -29.9% 9% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$588 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,982
Realized+$2,524
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses30 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage67d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $506 +$356 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $810 +$593 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$461 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $649 −$297 -46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,028 +$784 +76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,019 +$445 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,033 −$1,020 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $124 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,010 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,012 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,010 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $506 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $810 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,006 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,010 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,010 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $352 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $197 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $452 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1,002 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,009 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1,009 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1,009 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,013 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $127 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $127 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,982.02 · official $1,982.02 (match) · 76 history records