Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d62…4408 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%20W / 46L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$2
other 39% +$10
politics 11% −$3
sports 6% +$4
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 22 -4.6% -13.7% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 23 -5.1% -14.1% 26% 0% -10.1%
all 66 -1.9% -11.3% 30% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.2%
10% -19.8% 3% -17.9%
15% -27.5% 2% -25.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage259d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $25 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $13 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $28 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $33 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Jan 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $13 +$4 +35%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $13 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $12 +$5 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $20 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $20 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 16h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 23h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $27 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $15 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $32 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $32 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $11 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $3 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $25 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $19 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $28 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $28 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.59 · official $28.52 (match) · 379 history records