Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d5e…7e92 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$127 (-19%) realized −$120 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$584
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -82.6% -84.2% 0% 0% -95.2%
≤90d 6 -82.6% -84.2% 0% 0% -95.2%
all 6 -82.6% -84.2% 0% 0% -95.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.2% 0% -95.2%
10% -85.7% 0% -95.6%
15% -87.1% 0% -96.1%
20% -88.4% 0% -96.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -242% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -242% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$96 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage8d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $308 −$300 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $45 −$37 -82%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $110 −$66 -60%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $50 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 11¢ $7 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 20¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 1h
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 25¢ $26 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Minnesota Twins 7¢ $0 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 15¢ $8 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Minnesota Twins 5¢ $8 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $4 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 26¢ $41 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 21¢ $41 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $102 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.95 (match) · 18 history records