Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

7D 0x7d5d…8be6 other 14 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$8 (+10%) realized +$11 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day9.6pace

Kalshi-fit7%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+56.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+73.2%	+56.7%	67%	67%	+57.8%
≤30d	3	+73.2%	+56.7%	67%	67%	+57.8%
≤90d	3	+73.2%	+56.7%	67%	67%	+57.8%
all	3	+73.2%	+56.7%	67%	67%	+57.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+56.7%	67%	+57.8%
10%	+41.7%	67%	+42.7%
15%	+28.0%	67%	+28.9%
20%	+15.5%	67%	+16.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +73% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized+$11

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions11

Markets (closed)3 / 14

History coverage2d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day9.6

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 11 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+22%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$5	$7	+$2 (+38%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-50%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	84¢	80¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-6%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$5	$4	−$0 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	57¢	46¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$12	+226%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$5	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	2d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	84¢	$5	2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	72¢	$5	3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	57¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.00 · official $62.00 (match) · 19 history records