Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d5c…4cfd crypto 976 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$338 (-1%) realized −$356 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%505W / 469L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$66
14 days−$4
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$879
other 1% +$39
sports 1% −$4
politics 0% +$11
finance 0% −$48
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -9.8% -18.4% 50% 50% -6.2%
≤30d 190 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 51% -5.8%
≤90d 373 +1.9% -7.8% 54% 54% -3.9%
all 974 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 51% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 51% -11.4%
10% -20.2% 50% -19.9%
15% -27.9% 50% -27.6%
20% -34.9% 47% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses505 / 469
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)974 / 976
History coverage392d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 974 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 57¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 32¢ 53¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $46 +$36 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$30 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$12 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$8 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$43 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$17 +166%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $556 +$396 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$37 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$39 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$20 +76%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $51 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$19 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $227 +$156 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$32 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $46 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $556 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $258 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $129 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.39 · official $79.39 (match) · 2162 history records