Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d5b…b4c5 crypto 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%73W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$23
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$26
other 15% +$4
sports 2% +$1
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +2.1% -7.6% 43% 37% -23.5%
≤30d 149 +1.0% -8.6% 49% 44% -15.5%
≤90d 149 +1.0% -8.6% 49% 44% -15.5%
all 149 +1.0% -8.6% 49% 44% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 44% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 39% -23.6%
15% -25.3% 30% -31.0%
20% -32.7% 21% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses73 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)149 / 155
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -29%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$4 +364%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$4 +408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.04 · official $6.21 · 337 history records