Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d58…cfcc world 438 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,927 (+1%) realized +$3,743 · open +$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%151W / 232L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$610per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$12,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$3,469
other 15% −$6,771
finance 8% −$1,565
sports 7% −$1,184
crypto 3% +$6,562
politics 3% +$1,409
tech 1% +$250
economics 0% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -44.6% -49.8% 29% 24% -20.5%
≤30d 201 -22.0% -29.4% 37% 28% -9.4%
≤90d 383 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 31% -8.2%
all 383 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 31% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 31% -8.2%
10% -27.1% 27% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -34.2% 23% -25.0%
20% -40.6% 21% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$205 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$12,191
Realized+$3,743
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses151 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions86
Markets (closed)383 / 438
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$610
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,610 $1,846 +$236 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1,640 $1,326 −$314 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $860 $1,106 +$245 (+29%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 98¢ $772 $961 +$189 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $919 $961 +$42 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $629 $721 +$91 (+15%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 95¢ $511 $665 +$154 (+30%)
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 91¢ $437 $453 +$16 (+4%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 84¢ 97¢ $300 $347 +$47 (+16%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $235 +$65 (+38%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $321 $232 −$89 (-28%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $290 $225 −$65 (-22%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $389 $187 −$202 (-52%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 20¢ 32¢ $111 $172 +$61 (+55%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $195 $165 −$30 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 82¢ $142 $165 +$23 (+16%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $121 $143 +$22 (+18%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $160 $135 −$25 (-16%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $177 $130 −$46 (-26%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $129 $106 −$23 (-18%)
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? No 82¢ 50¢ $164 $100 −$64 (-39%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 96¢ 93¢ $103 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $90 +$40 (+80%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $85 −$25 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$12 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $60 +$40 +66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $324 +$46 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $117 +$80 +69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $188 +$6 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $46 +$6 +12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $286 −$149 -52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $150 +$150 +100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $93 +$107 +115%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $363 −$20 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $150 +$106 +71%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 −$154 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $298 −$79 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $190 +$163 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,500 +$3 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $70 −$56 -80%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 14 $100 −$93 -93%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $28,358 +$756 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $444 −$394 -89%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $188 −$100 -53%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $90 −$30 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $515 −$447 -87%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $443 −$405 -92%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 14 $99 −$77 -78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $72 −$72 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,558 −$1,551 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $800 −$660 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16,170 −$4,644 -29%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $799 −$439 -55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $207 −$204 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $25 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $1 49m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $196 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $19 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $21 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $13 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $90 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $40 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $40 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 92¢ $79 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $21 16h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $38 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 16h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 17h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,191.49 · official $12,192.88 (match) · 3500 history records