Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d58…462d other 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 1027d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$187 (-1%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%71W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$70
14 days−$168
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 24% −$304
politics 21% +$88
crypto 21% +$274
other 18% −$157
finance 5% −$39
tech 4% −$27
economics 3% −$25
sports 2% −$46
culture 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -5.4% -14.5% 17% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 100 -7.6% -16.4% 11% 1% -11.7%
≤90d 202 -7.7% -16.5% 13% 1% -12.4%
all 298 -3.9% -13.1% 24% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -10.1%
10% -21.4% 3% -18.7%
15% -29.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1027d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses71 / 227
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)298 / 301
History coverage1027d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 80¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $96 −$3 -3%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Jun 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $235 −$6 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $144 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -8%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $117 $0 -0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 12 $160 +$1 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 11 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 11 $14 −$3 -21%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -5%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Serie Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 11 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $41 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $60 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $104 −$7 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $122 −$9 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $103 −$3 -2%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $88 −$20 -22%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $34 −$2 -5%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $114 −$1 -0%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Jun 09 $109 −$4 -4%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Deel IPO before 2027? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -37%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 08 $97 −$2 -2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $75 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $194 −$9 -5%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $459 −$3 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $90 −$2 -2%
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series Jun 07 $1 −$1 -58%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 07 $11 −$4 -37%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 06 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $288 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 79¢ $78 5h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 80¢ $15 5h
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 21h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $74 29h
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 3d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 81¢ $96 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $47 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $105 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 51¢ $60 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 51¢ $61 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 11¢ $13 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 12¢ $0 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 12¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $0.00 · 1885 history records