Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7d56…0ba5
sports · 382 markets active 0h ago
6.5score
+$1,834 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,909 · open −$75
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$189
Realized+$1,909
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses173 / 207
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)380 / 382
History coverage402d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 2 History 380 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $124 $135 +$11 (+9%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 16¢ $140 $54 −$86 (-61%)
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SK Gaming 61¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$49 -48%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Apr 09 $83 −$12 -15%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 07 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $31 −$31 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $88 −$88 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 4.5 Jan 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 1 Winner Jan 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Utah vs. Predators Jan 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Capitals vs. Flames Jan 29 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jan 29 $96 −$96 -100%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Jan 29 $86 −$86 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5 Jan 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Devils vs. Oilers Jan 29 $143 −$143 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 29 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 29 $78 −$78 -100%
Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 Jan 29 $148 −$148 -100%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Jan 29 $209 −$209 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 29 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 29 $193 −$193 -100%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Jan 29 $114 −$114 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 29 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Pistons vs. Pelicans Jan 29 $245 −$245 -100%
Jets vs. Devils Jan 28 $116 −$6 -5%
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Jan 28 $59 +$61 +104%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jan 28 $106 −$25 -24%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $104 $0 -0%
Rangers vs. Sharks Jan 24 $68 +$62 +92%
Spread: Bucks (-6.5) Jan 24 $92 +$108 +117%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jan 24 $121 +$979 +809%
Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5 Jan 23 $152 −$21 -14%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Jan 23 $261 −$15 -6%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 23 $95 +$155 +163%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jan 22 $82 +$28 +33%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $118 +$92 +79%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $182 +$148 +81%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $295 +$115 +39%
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 4.5 Jan 21 $217 −$61 -28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-13? Jan 21 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Jan 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Senators vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Jan 21 $189 −$189 -100%
Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the top global Netflix show th Jan 21 $214 −$214 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 21 $421 −$421 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 21 $124 +$76 +61%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 21 $165 +$896 +543%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Jan 21 $180 +$29 +16%
Suns vs. 76ers Jan 21 $191 −$189 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 21 $131 +$279 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% +$1,465
other 27% +$186
crypto 3% +$107
tech 1% +$17
world 1% +$116
politics 1% −$62
economics 0% −$152
culture 0% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $53 2m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $81 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4h
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY SK Gaming 61¢ $140 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 133d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -48.2% -53.1% 0% 0% -53.1%
≤30d 1 -48.2% -53.1% 0% 0% -53.1%
≤90d 2 -31.5% -38.0% 0% 0% -39.5%
all 380 +6.9% -3.3% 46% 45% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 45% -6.9%
10% -12.5% 43% -15.8%
15% -21.0% 40% -23.9%
20% -28.7% 37% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.98 · official $188.98 (match) · 1342 history records