Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d54…6022 crypto 478 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,020 (+5%) realized +$2,061 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%290W / 161L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,936
7 days+$2,341
14 days+$2,341
30 days+$2,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$390
sports 35% +$2,059
other 28% −$347
world 1% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 +4.8% -5.2% 65% 59% -2.7%
≤30d 321 +4.8% -5.2% 65% 59% -2.7%
≤90d 451 +3.7% -6.1% 64% 58% -4.3%
all 451 +3.7% -6.1% 64% 58% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 58% -4.3%
10% -15.1% 49% -13.5%
15% -23.3% 39% -21.8%
20% -30.8% 31% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$66 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$2,638
Realized+$2,061
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses290 / 161
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions26
Markets (closed)451 / 478
History coverage69d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 99¢ $485 $494 +$9 (+2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $374 $400 +$25 (+7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? No 93¢ 100¢ $256 $275 +$19 (+7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $150 $250 +$100 (+67%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 76¢ 100¢ $190 $250 +$60 (+32%)
Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals No 87¢ 75¢ $218 $188 −$30 (-14%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Under 47¢ 84¢ $82 $146 +$64 (+78%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 75¢ 70¢ $140 $132 −$8 (-6%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 7.5 Corners Under 72¢ 91¢ $80 $101 +$21 (+26%)
Odeh Fakhoury: 1+ goals No 93¢ 75¢ $63 $51 −$12 (-20%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 96¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists No 80¢ 72¢ $55 $49 −$6 (-11%)
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals No 82¢ 75¢ $51 $47 −$5 (-9%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 78¢ $36 $43 +$7 (+19%)
Austria to win the second half? No 41¢ 46¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+11%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 48¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 69¢ 100¢ $22 $32 +$10 (+44%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Over 47¢ 16¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-65%)
Stefan Posch: 1+ goals No 89¢ 75¢ $16 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals No 83¢ 75¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists No 80¢ 57¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals No 86¢ 75¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Thiago Almada: 1+ assists No 78¢ 50¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-35%)
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals No 62¢ 49¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Austria 61¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists Jun 17 $13 +$3 +24%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $162 +$87 +54%
Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists Jun 17 $127 +$19 +15%
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists Jun 17 $178 +$22 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$5 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $22 +$13 +59%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals Jun 17 $90 +$17 +19%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals Jun 17 $142 +$23 +16%
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists Jun 17 $60 +$9 +15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$5 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $240 +$60 +25%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 17 $261 +$39 +15%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $190 +$60 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Second half draw? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $49 +$5 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $39 +$11 +28%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 17 $66 +$13 +19%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals Jun 17 $34 +$8 +24%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $215 +$35 +16%
Sander Berge: 1+ assists Jun 17 $128 +$34 +27%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $43 +$13 +32%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 17 $147 +$102 +70%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 17 $195 +$55 +28%
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ goals Jun 17 $41 +$5 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $102 +$147 +144%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $128 +$122 +96%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +96%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $170 +$80 +47%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $98 +$44 +45%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $145 +$105 +72%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals Jun 17 $24 +$5 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $212 +$37 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $200 +$50 +25%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $558 +$42 +8%
Aymen Hussein: 1+ goals Jun 16 $212 −$212 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $167 −$167 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +194%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $89 +$82 +92%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Kosta Barbarouses: 1+ goals Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $220 +$30 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $202 +$47 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $123 +$6 +5%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $84 +$27 +32%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $206 +$44 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 72¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $48 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $14 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $57 1h
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $9 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $8 1h
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 1h
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Stefan Posch: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $16 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $57 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 1h
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $140 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $45 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $173 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $39 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $41 1h
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $22 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $37 1h
Austria to win the second half? BUY No 41¢ $3 1h
Austria to win the second half? BUY No 41¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $108 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $98 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,638.36 · official $2,638.36 (match) · 1369 history records