Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d53…6ffd crypto 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-2%) realized −$74 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate79%251W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$33
14 days−$77
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$4
sports 11% −$70
politics 10% −$1
other 8% +$3
world 3% −$3
culture 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -43.0% -48.4% 36% 27% -53.8%
≤30d 57 -20.0% -27.6% 70% 12% -20.6%
≤90d 226 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 3% -12.0%
all 316 -3.8% -12.9% 79% 4% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -11.2%
10% -21.3% 2% -19.7%
15% -28.9% 2% -27.5%
20% -35.8% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses251 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)316 / 318
History coverage172d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 76¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -49%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $7 −$6 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $6 −$5 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $8 +$14 +172%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $13 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-05-28? Jun 01 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $13 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET May 26 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 72¢ $5 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 68¢ $9 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $5 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $6 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $3 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 84¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 71¢ $5 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $7 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 6d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 77¢ $7 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 15¢ $2 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 27¢ $6 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $8 8d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 66¢ $6 9d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $10 9d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $6 9d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 36¢ $3 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 36¢ $2 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 71¢ $5 11d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $5 11d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $10 12d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 36¢ $8 12d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 13d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.47 · official $13.47 (match) · 1162 history records