Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d51…0e4c other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-3%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$585
sports 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.2% -39.6% 20% 20% -62.8%
≤30d 10 -33.2% -39.6% 20% 20% -62.8%
≤90d 10 -33.2% -39.6% 20% 20% -62.8%
all 10 -33.2% -39.6% 20% 20% -62.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 20% -62.8%
10% -45.4% 20% -66.4%
15% -50.6% 20% -69.6%
20% -55.5% 10% -72.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$78 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage35d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,262 −$384 -30%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $111 −$109 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $70 +$41 +58%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $82 −$12 -14%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $78 −$66 -85%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $56 −$41 -73%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 −$9 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 51m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $42 51m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 97¢ $440 58m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 88¢ $443 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 84¢ $427 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 77¢ $424 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 71¢ $395 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 44¢ $111 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 87¢ $111 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 54¢ $70 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $70 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $44 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $61 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $61 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $71 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records