Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d4e…163e other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$335 (+26%) realized +$337 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$189
14 days+$328
30 days+$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$286
sports 22% +$88
crypto 19% +$13
tech 4% −$55
world 3% −$5
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.9% +17.5% 83% 83% +28.0%
≤30d 15 +16.5% +5.4% 67% 67% +22.8%
≤90d 22 +9.6% -0.8% 64% 59% +18.5%
all 22 +9.6% -0.8% 64% 59% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 59% +18.5%
10% -10.3% 55% +7.2%
15% -19.0% 55% -3.2%
20% -26.9% 32% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$29 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$337
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage46d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$72 +119%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $55 −$55 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 07 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 07 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 07 $30 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $81 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 45¢ $61 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $30 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $30 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 10d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 2? BUY Up 81¢ $55 19d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY Yes $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down $21 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 45d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.13 · official $138.13 · 45 history records