Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d46…1eac sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+7%) realized +$30 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$89
other 39% −$61
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.6% -7.2% 44% 44% -6.3%
≤30d 16 +2.6% -7.2% 44% 44% -6.3%
≤90d 16 +2.6% -7.2% 44% 44% -6.3%
all 16 +2.6% -7.2% 44% 44% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 44% -6.3%
10% -16.1% 44% -15.3%
15% -24.2% 44% -23.5%
20% -31.6% 44% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 39¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$26 +85%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$30 +97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 56m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $34 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 26h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $41 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.78 · official $126.78 (match) · 30 history records