Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d44…16bd world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$13
other 23% +$1
finance 12% $0
politics 4% +$2
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% −$6
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 11% -6.0%
≤90d 9 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 11% -6.0%
all 30 -1.9% -11.3% 57% 7% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -7.7%
10% -19.8% 3% -16.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -24.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $45 +$12 +26%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $68 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $70 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $37 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $25 +$2 +9%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $6 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 23 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 20 $13 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 2h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 89¢ $45 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $32 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $26 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $6 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $15 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $18 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $36 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $5 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $7 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $12 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 62¢ $27 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 57¢ $25 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.66 · official $47.66 (match) · 90 history records