Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d44…ffe5 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$21
14 days−$30
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$39
other 26% −$20
sports 17% −$8
crypto 11% +$2
world 6% $0
culture 5% −$6
economics 3% +$1
finance 2% −$1
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 63 -1.5% -10.9% 10% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 113 -0.8% -10.3% 18% 0% -10.0%
all 132 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 106
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage102d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -1%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $51 $0 +1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $221 −$3 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $145 +$1 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $422 −$3 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $139 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $448 −$5 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $103 −$2 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $118 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$2 -5%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $123 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $271 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $19 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $48 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $82 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $56 −$25 -45%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 02 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $51 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $133 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $203 +$1 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $268 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $27 52m
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $25 53m
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $55 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $55 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 16h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 16h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 23h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $51 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 32h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $47 32h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 32h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $50 33h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $51 38h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 39h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $54 43h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 44h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $56 3d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.97 · official $51.97 (match) · 486 history records