Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d42…a046 weather 475 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-5%) realized −$93 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%305W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$20
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -2.9% -12.2% 64% 50% -10.2%
≤30d 228 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 46% -14.3%
≤90d 467 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 39% -14.6%
all 467 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 39% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 39% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 29% -22.8%
15% -28.9% 22% -30.3%
20% -35.9% 6% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses305 / 162
Open positions8
Markets (closed)467 / 475
History coverage64d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 96¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? No 88¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? No 63¢ 69¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? No 48¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? No 38¢ 39¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 38¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $6 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 48¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.07 · official $21.07 (match) · 1343 history records