Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7D 0x7d3f…f07b tech 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+6%) realized +$44 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 99% +$65
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.5% -1.0% 100% 50% +0.2%
≤30d 2 +9.5% -1.0% 100% 50% +0.2%
≤90d 2 +9.5% -1.0% 100% 50% +0.2%
all 2 +9.5% -1.0% 100% 50% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 50% +0.2%
10% -10.4% 0% -9.4%
15% -19.1% 0% -18.2%
20% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$772
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $250 $288 +$38 (+15%)
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $250 $234 −$16 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 23 $397 +$43 +11%
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $772.39 · official $772.39 (match) · 10 history records