Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d3e…346a world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$371 (-2%) realized +$1,177 · open −$1,548
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$844per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$11,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$386
7 days+$336
14 days+$336
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,811
world 24% +$3,088
crypto 15% +$540
economics 12% −$2,280
sports 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +88.9% +70.9% 50% 50% +111.8%
≤30d 4 +88.9% +70.9% 50% 50% +111.8%
≤90d 10 +62.8% +47.3% 40% 40% +19.5%
all 17 +38.5% +25.3% 35% 35% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 35% +4.0%
10% +13.3% 35% -6.0%
15% +2.4% 29% -15.1%
20% -7.6% 29% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$675 vs −$268 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$11,151
Realized+$1,177
Unrealized−$1,548
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage174d
Avg bet$844
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $7,679 $6,850 −$829 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 62¢ $1,567 $1,800 +$233 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 50¢ $1,170 $1,515 +$345 (+29%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 33¢ $1,087 $604 −$483 (-44%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $192 $205 +$13 (+7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $954 $129 −$825 (-86%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$120 +239%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$316 +316%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Panthers vs. Senators Apr 09 $192 −$192 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $338 +$1,735 +513%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $841 +$684 +81%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $2,095 −$495 -24%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $223 −$219 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 18 $443 −$443 -100%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $235 −$230 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 06 $547 −$547 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $996 +$314 +32%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $221 +$883 +399%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $285 −$33 -11%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $242 −$227 -94%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 24 $464 −$464 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $52 37h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 3d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,009 25d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,987 30d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,215 35d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,239 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1,000 45d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $542 54d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,087 58d
Panthers vs. Senators BUY Panthers 25¢ $192 67d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,073 69d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $338 71d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $797 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,525 71d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes $4 75d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $841 75d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes $4 75d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,024 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $443 89d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 91d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes $235 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $223 93d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,044 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $1,567 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,151.38 · official $11,151.39 (match) · 59 history records