Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d3e…534e other 252 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,148 (+3%) realized +$1,976 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%173W / 71L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$5,846now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$513
7 days+$3,198
14 days+$4,172
30 days+$4,528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$3,185
politics 36% +$2,335
world 11% −$2,574
tech 5% −$740
weather 4% −$66
sports 3% −$87
economics 1% +$34
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +16.0% +5.0% 100% 59% +4.3%
≤30d 35 +14.7% +3.8% 97% 54% +3.8%
≤90d 113 +3.7% -6.2% 81% 40% +1.5%
all 244 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 33% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 33% -7.1%
10% -17.5% 19% -16.0%
15% -25.5% 13% -24.1%
20% -32.8% 7% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$119 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$5,846
Realized+$1,976
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses173 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)244 / 252
History coverage197d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $1,898 $1,842 −$56 (-3%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1,562 $1,562 +$1 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $744 $790 +$46 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $600 $676 +$76 (+13%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $450 $468 +$18 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 95¢ $220 $300 +$80 (+36%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $184 $191 +$6 (+3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 38¢ 42¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? Jun 26 $138 +$3 +2%
Will Randi White be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Jun 26 $196 +$8 +4%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $1,566 +$354 +23%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $1,570 +$75 +5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,427 +$73 +5%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $2,982 +$300 +10%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $342 +$115 +34%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $2,197 +$372 +17%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $771 +$261 +34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $958 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $410 +$40 +10%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 22 $407 +$56 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $343 +$105 +31%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $775 +$83 +11%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $510 +$90 +18%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,650 +$750 +46%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $4,647 +$511 +11%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $997 +$202 +20%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,129 +$350 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $689 +$421 +61%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $1,349 +$286 +21%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $979 +$277 +28%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $228 +$22 +10%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $187 +$16 +9%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $680 +$57 +8%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $543 +$47 +9%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,325 +$154 +12%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $2 $0 +4%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co May 31 $606 +$115 +19%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 31 $299 +$21 +7%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 31 $879 −$652 -74%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 29 $30 +$12 +40%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $135 +$5 +4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 26 $106 +$3 +3%
Will AKEL win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 25 $615 +$120 +20%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $462 +$38 +8%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $356 −$15 -4%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $419 −$63 -15%
Will Xabi Alonso be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 16 $378 +$121 +32%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 14 $366 +$28 +8%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $300 −$255 -85%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $304 +$241 +79%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $201 −$134 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $193 +$3 +2%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $213 +$137 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 1h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $140 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $82 2h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 85¢ $6 2h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 84¢ $102 3h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 82¢ $15 4h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 90¢ $584 5h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 89¢ $12 9h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 89¢ $40 9h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 89¢ $452 9h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 88¢ $695 9h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $53 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 13h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 13h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $90 13h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $79 13h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $526 14h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,225 14h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 27h
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 92¢ $11 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,845.58 · official $5,845.58 (match) · 1193 history records