Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d3a…fe75 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$144 (+3%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%52W / 7L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$54
14 days+$96
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$97
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 52 -11.7% -20.1% 87% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 59 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 12% -7.8%
all 59 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 12% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 12% -7.8%
10% -18.7% 12% -16.6%
15% -26.5% 12% -24.7%
20% -33.7% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.29 per $1 lost it wins $4.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses52 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage59d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $202 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $194 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $191 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $188 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $186 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $135 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $127 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $22 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $134 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $135 +$10 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $134 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $134 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $134 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $134 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $89 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $134 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $134 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $134 +$4 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $126 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
BNB Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $202 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $194 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $191 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $188 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $186 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $135 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $127 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $47 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $22 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $134 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $134 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $135 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $134 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $134 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $134 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $134 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $89 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $134 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $134 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $134 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $134 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $134 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $61 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $134 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $125 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $126 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records