Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d35…3d76 weather 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$476 (-22%) realized −$460 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%70W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$98
14 days+$90
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% −$53
sports 23% −$332
world 10% −$118
other 3% −$10
culture 0% −$5
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +67.8% +51.8% 46% 46% +63.7%
≤30d 44 +21.3% +9.8% 41% 41% -10.0%
≤90d 204 -4.5% -13.6% 34% 32% -32.0%
all 204 -4.5% -13.6% 34% 32% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 32% -32.0%
10% -21.8% 30% -38.5%
15% -29.4% 27% -44.5%
20% -36.3% 25% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses70 / 134
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)204 / 210
History coverage95d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? No 42¢ 41¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? No 50¢ 48¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 21? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 21? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $14 +$7 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$39 +326%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$39 +1130%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 +$6 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$19 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $11 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$11 +1095%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 6? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 6? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $30 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 04 $9 −$7 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26? May 25 $12 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 25? May 25 $19 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 23? May 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or below on May 23? May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 23? May 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 23? May 22 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 23? May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 23? May 22 $17 −$16 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 48¢ $7 43m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 48¢ $7 44m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 42¢ $37 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 50¢ $47 50m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL No 96¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? SELL Yes 35¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 26h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 39¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 62¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.09 · official $66.09 (match) · 448 history records