Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7d34…dd4d crypto 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$97 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%200W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$119
14 days−$95
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$12
world 12% −$95
sports 2% +$4
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -17.0% -24.9% 58% 44% -15.6%
≤30d 317 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 49% -13.5%
≤90d 317 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 49% -13.5%
all 317 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 49% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 49% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 32% -21.8%
15% -33.2% 20% -29.3%
20% -39.7% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses200 / 117
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)317 / 319
History coverage22d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 40¢ 22¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$7 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 86¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 5h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 61¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.82 · official $5.82 (match) · 1052 history records