Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d34…47c8 other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$238 (+3%) realized +$675 · open −$437
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$2,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$136
crypto 6% −$80
sports 1% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 3 +63.5% +47.9% 100% 33% +79.9%
≤90d 7 +17.6% +6.4% 71% 43% +37.6%
all 59 -8.0% -16.7% 51% 32% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 32% -4.3%
10% -24.7% 20% -13.4%
15% -32.0% 17% -21.8%
20% -38.6% 17% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$23 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$2,230
Realized+$675
Unrealized−$437
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Open positions10
Markets (closed)59 / 69
History coverage245d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $1,000 −$200 (-17%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $832 −$168 (-17%)
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 11¢ $226 $133 −$92 (-41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $80 $99 +$18 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $30 −$5 (-13%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $15 $22 +$6 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $107 +$6 +5%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 24 $122 +$225 +185%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 21 $28 +$20 +72%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 16 $12 −$12 -94%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 16 $75 −$72 -96%
Space FDV above $40M one day after launch? Apr 29 $144 +$87 +61%
idOS FDV above $80M one day after launch? Mar 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Block Street FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Block Street FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 01 $38 +$65 +172%
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 01 $150 +$92 +61%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 28 $111 −$107 -96%
Fabric FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $11 +$3 +31%
Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Feb 26 $10 $0 +2%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 30 $237 +$29 +12%
Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 23 $146 +$4 +3%
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch? Jan 12 $330 +$55 +16%
Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 09 $42 +$3 +6%
Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jan 08 $6 +$1 +22%
Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 07 $30 +$16 +55%
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 04 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 03 $14 −$9 -67%
Will Justin Hood win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Luke Humphries win the PDC World Darts Championship? Dec 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Paradex FDV above $5B one day after launch? Dec 09 $874 +$4 +0%
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? Nov 27 $1,818 +$104 +6%
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch? Nov 24 $7 $0 -7%
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? Nov 24 $9 +$2 +21%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Nov 24 $38 +$7 +18%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch? Nov 23 $73 +$23 +32%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 23 $88 +$15 +17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 23 $12 $0 -4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $115 $0 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Nov 23 $60 +$4 +8%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Nov 09 $32 −$5 -17%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 09 $3 +$11 +329%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Oct 31 $50 +$10 +21%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 31 $70 −$66 -94%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Oct 30 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Nethe Oct 30 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands Oct 30 $95 +$118 +125%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 30 $151 +$15 +10%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 29 $159 +$10 +6%
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Oct 29 $90 −$47 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,236 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,020 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $93 4d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $113 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $40 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 10d
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 28¢ $256 12d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 29d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 29d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 29d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 29d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 29d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 29d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 30d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 30d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 30d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 30d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 30d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,229.78 · official $2,229.83 (match) · 559 history records