Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d34…7f59 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$20
world 40% +$1
politics 6% +$4
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 56% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 56% 0% -9.3%
all 27 -3.3% -12.6% 41% 11% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 11% -7.9%
10% -20.9% 4% -16.7%
15% -28.6% 4% -24.7%
20% -35.6% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage269d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $33 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $22 +$3 +16%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $3 $0 +7%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $64 $0 -0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $26 +$18 +69%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $36 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $36 3h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $25 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $8 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $35 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $26 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $26 26d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $1 208d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $23 208d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $15 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records