Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d33…80a6 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$442 (-11%) realized −$286 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$953
crypto 35% −$462
sports 12% +$881
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.4% -1.0% 47% 47% -27.5%
≤30d 15 +9.4% -1.0% 47% 47% -27.5%
≤90d 15 +9.4% -1.0% 47% 47% -27.5%
all 15 +9.4% -1.0% 47% 47% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 47% -27.5%
10% -10.5% 40% -34.5%
15% -19.1% 40% -40.8%
20% -27.0% 27% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$163 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,843
Realized−$286
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,000 $968 −$32 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,000 $875 −$125 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $21 +$14 +67%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $26 +$16 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $47 +$18 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $130 −$125 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$21 +41%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $53 +$34 +64%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $42 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $42 −$18 -42%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $834 −$821 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $354 +$811 +230%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 48¢ $35 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $21 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 76¢ $43 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $26 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $65 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $47 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $74 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $53 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $104 9h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 20¢ $50 10h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 10h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 15¢ $35 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,058 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $42 16h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $42 16h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $42 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,057 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $37 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $106 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 38h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $834 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $1,165 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,843.47 · official $1,843.47 (match) · 37 history records