Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7D 0x7d32…d09b other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$285 (+31%) realized +$337 · open −$52

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +110% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip

Net edge+75%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$233per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+89.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+109.8%	+89.8%	67%	67%	+21.6%
≤30d	3	+109.8%	+89.8%	67%	67%	+21.6%
≤90d	3	+109.8%	+89.8%	67%	67%	+21.6%
all	3	+109.8%	+89.8%	67%	67%	+21.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+89.8%	67%	+21.6%
10%	+71.6%	67%	+10.0%
15%	+55.1%	67%	-0.6%
20%	+39.9%	33%	-10.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +110% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$144 vs −$13 · ×11.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×22.24 per $1 lost it wins $22.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$337

Unrealized−$52

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$233

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	11¢	4¢	$76	$25	−$52 (-68%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$404	−$13	-3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$348	+$143	+41%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$103	+$146	+142%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$27	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	69¢	$391	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$404	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$491	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$348	5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	10¢	$239	6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.51 · official $21.81 · 9 history records