Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d30…e133 crypto 482 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,019 (+1%) realized +$2,971 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate68%327W / 154L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$206
14 days+$334
30 days+$914
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,460
politics 1% +$632
world 0% −$343
other 0% +$14
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.2% -7.5% 90% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 46 +6.8% -3.4% 96% 4% -7.8%
≤90d 417 +2.7% -7.1% 66% 36% -9.4%
all 481 +2.4% -7.4% 68% 34% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 34% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 30% -17.6%
15% -24.3% 27% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 24% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$114 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1,728
Realized+$2,971
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses327 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)481 / 482
History coverage115d
Avg bet$529
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,680 $1,728 +$48 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $1,102 −$16 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,604 +$51 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,601 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,100 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $402 +$33 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $301 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,301 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,603 +$43 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,602 +$28 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,602 +$29 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,601 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,351 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,702 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $400 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $401 +$15 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,501 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $81 +$7 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,603 +$35 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,601 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $802 +$32 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $601 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,002 +$25 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,861 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $1,802 +$32 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $502 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $13 +$30 +240%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $802 +$33 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $1,001 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $52 +$36 +71%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 30? May 31 $602 +$26 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,001 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $601 +$17 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $601 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,600 +$37 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $603 +$46 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,002 +$22 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,681 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $1,601 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $1,603 +$35 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $1,401 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,501 +$19 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $1,682 +$30 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $1,652 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,653 +$36 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,753 +$47 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 21 $78 +$70 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 21 $32 −$31 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $381 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? SELL No 98¢ $346 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $702 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $114 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $152 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? SELL No 97¢ $203 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $270 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $1,102 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $601 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $1,604 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1,601 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1,100 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $402 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,308 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,301 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $301 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,647 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $902 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $702 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,631 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1,602 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,631 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1,602 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,611 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,601 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $350 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $200 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,001 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $1,718 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1,702 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,727.78 · official $1,729.51 (match) · 1345 history records