Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d30…8437 weather 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 39% $0
crypto 27% $0
other 26% +$1
tech 4% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 18 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage180d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on June 2? May 31 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on May 28? May 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 24? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 8? Apr 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 8? Mar 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 1? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? Feb 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15? Feb 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S Feb 23 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Jan 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? Jan 21 $20 $0 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $128 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $60 25d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $51 30d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $43 33d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $34 80d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 92d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 100d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $32 100d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 99¢ $8 109d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 110d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $9 112d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 118d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $9 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $15 131d
Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S BUY No 100¢ $19 134d
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 157d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 158d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 158d
US strike on Mexico by January 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 158d
US strike on Mexico by January 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 158d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $128 177d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $1 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.22 · official $183.22 (match) · 37 history records