Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d30…c19d crypto 1043 markets active 16h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%672W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$45
14 days−$47
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$54
sports 2% −$72
other 2% −$10
politics 1% +$36
world 0% −$17
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -5.9% -14.9% 67% 67% -17.7%
≤30d 805 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 67% -10.0%
≤90d 931 -2.6% -11.9% 66% 62% -10.0%
all 1043 -4.0% -13.2% 64% 60% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 60% -10.5%
10% -21.5% 44% -19.1%
15% -29.1% 27% -26.9%
20% -36.0% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses672 / 371
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1043 / 1043
History coverage249d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1043 Trades
no open positions (253 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$12 -63%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $83 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $7 +$31 +414%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 34h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $6 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $6 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 57¢ $7 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $6 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $7 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 0¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2234 history records