Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7D 0x7d2f…799c other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$102 (+13%) realized +$88 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$105
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$195
crypto 12% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.5% +9.9% 50% 50% +6.4%
≤30d 7 +44.0% +30.3% 57% 57% +0.5%
≤90d 7 +44.0% +30.3% 57% 57% +0.5%
all 7 +44.0% +30.3% 57% 57% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.3% 57% +0.5%
10% +17.8% 57% -9.2%
15% +6.5% 57% -17.9%
20% -4.0% 43% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$95 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage8d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 98¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $191 −$188 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $306 +$136 +45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $98 +$157 +161%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $59 +$52 +88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +234%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $189 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $442 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $255 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $57 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $59 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $92 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.66 · official $42.76 (match) · 20 history records