Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7d2a…207b sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,571 (+7%) realized +$2,583 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,575per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$316
sports 20% +$2,582
other 5% −$401
tech 2% +$26
economics 2% −$311
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% +$314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +203.9% +175.0% 100% 100% +109.3%
all 23 +17.8% +6.6% 70% 43% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 43% -3.4%
10% -3.6% 43% -12.6%
15% -12.9% 35% -21.1%
20% -21.5% 22% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +131% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$890) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$353 vs −$443 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$2,583
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage542d
Avg bet$1,575
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $335 $322 −$12 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $426 +$2,174 +510%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $866 +$634 +73%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $1,085 +$315 +29%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25? Mar 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 21 $345 −$345 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 21 $399 −$399 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Mar 21 $366 −$366 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Mar 21 $890 −$890 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons Mar 21 $759 −$759 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $322 −$322 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 11 $936 +$364 +39%
Nuggets vs. Wizards Jan 23 $612 +$288 +47%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 06 $674 +$26 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $186 +$314 +169%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $281 +$119 +42%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $289 +$11 +4%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jun 02 $1,200 +$1,200 +100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 12 $223 +$77 +34%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $192 +$108 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $230 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 05 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 01 $26,132 +$12 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $338 1h
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 16¢ $426 48d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 57¢ $866 52d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $1,085 62d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 57¢ $399 93d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $809 106d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $13 106d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $32 106d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $2 106d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $4 106d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $29 106d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Spurs 72¢ $936 131d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 69¢ $138 144d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 69¢ $207 144d
Nuggets vs. Wizards BUY Nuggets 68¢ $612 150d
Clippers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 69¢ $759 162d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 96¢ $673 182d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 96¢ $1 182d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 14¢ $276 205d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 14¢ $31 205d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 14¢ $15 205d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $22 227d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $18 227d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $18 227d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $9 227d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $3 227d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $17 227d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $8 227d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $7 227d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 37¢ $7 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.49 · official $322.49 (match) · 248 history records