Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7D 0x7d28…f6a8 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$590 (-79%) realized −$587 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$489
14 days−$589
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$453
crypto 20% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$98 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$587
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage9d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $118 $115 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $57 −$53 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $147 −$139 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $266 −$250 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $124 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $57 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $147 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $266 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.20 · official $115.20 (match) · 7 history records