Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d26…a7d1 other 325 markets active 4h ago coverage 196d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 195d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$39,405 (+9%) realized +$33,284 · open +$6,121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%143W / 130L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,280per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$26,978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$590
7 days+$1,430
14 days+$2,015
30 days−$5,779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$46,213
politics 29% +$174
crypto 15% −$8,723
world 3% −$505
tech 1% +$539
sports 0% −$258
economics 0% +$28
finance 0% −$18
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +42.6% +29.0% 69% 62% +4.4%
≤30d 38 +19.2% +7.8% 53% 34% -20.0%
≤90d 112 +7.3% -3.0% 48% 29% -10.3%
all 273 +15.3% +4.3% 52% 30% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 30% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -5.7% 22% -11.4%
15% -14.8% 16% -20.0%
20% -23.1% 13% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,138) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$415 vs −$230 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$26,978
Realized+$33,284
Unrealized+$6,121
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses143 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions52
Markets (closed)273 / 325
History coverage196d ⚠
Avg bet$1,280
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 90¢ $3,873 $4,778 +$905 (+23%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 74¢ $2,956 $4,199 +$1,244 (+42%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 27¢ 36¢ $1,197 $1,596 +$399 (+33%)
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 55¢ 74¢ $1,158 $1,561 +$403 (+35%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 56¢ $1,529 $1,433 −$96 (-6%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,045 $1,143 +$97 (+9%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 15¢ 64¢ $224 $946 +$722 (+323%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $750 $821 +$70 (+9%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 55¢ $439 $614 +$175 (+40%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 45¢ 56¢ $455 $555 +$100 (+22%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 51¢ 60¢ $452 $531 +$79 (+17%)
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 86¢ $375 $512 +$137 (+37%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No 68¢ 78¢ $442 $512 +$70 (+16%)
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 82¢ $364 $475 +$111 (+31%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 40¢ 72¢ $260 $469 +$210 (+81%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 26¢ 61¢ $201 $465 +$264 (+131%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 38¢ 60¢ $269 $433 +$163 (+61%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $356 $424 +$69 (+19%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 46¢ $259 $415 +$156 (+60%)
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10? No 81¢ 88¢ $384 $415 +$30 (+8%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 32¢ 33¢ $399 $412 +$12 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 81¢ 78¢ $390 $374 −$16 (-4%)
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? No 41¢ 72¢ $179 $319 +$141 (+79%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 35¢ 74¢ $132 $277 +$146 (+111%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 39¢ 55¢ $197 $273 +$75 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 24 $114 +$105 +92%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $413 +$452 +109%
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 22 $142 +$33 +23%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $2,107 +$589 +28%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 21 $176 +$43 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2,081 −$25 -1%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $681 +$84 +12%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of June 15 20 Jun 18 $0 +$1 +245%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $342 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 18 $2,150 +$7 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $338 −$14 -4%
Base FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 17 $115 $0 -0%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $638 +$155 +24%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $377 +$5 +1%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $255 +$12 +5%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $82 +$6 +7%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,910 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4,361 −$24 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $238 +$217 +91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $225 −$129 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $408 −$227 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 13 $557 +$14 +2%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 13 $428 −$230 -54%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 13 $489 −$83 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $52 −$38 -73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $406 −$22 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $396 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2,706 +$1,195 +44%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $13 +$87 +652%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Jun 02 $190 −$55 -29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13,002 +$3,662 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $13,708 −$11,476 -84%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $1,877 −$26 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $1,140 +$15 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 24 $8 −$2 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 22 $119 −$62 -52%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $109,411 $0 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $14 +$6 +39%
Ebola emergency by June 30? May 21 $13 −$3 -26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 21 $17 −$14 -82%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 550.0k by May 31? May 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 21 $3,417 −$988 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 62¢ $308 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 73¢ $145 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 74¢ $294 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 6h
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $2 6h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $10 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $892 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $162 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 81¢ $817 8h
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $216 9h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $435 10h
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $13 10h
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 40¢ $226 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $91 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $46 10h
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 31¢ $22 12h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? SELL Yes 62¢ $124 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $389 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 83¢ $225 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 80¢ $602 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 83¢ $675 29h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $109 30h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $56 36h
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $175 40h
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1,258 40h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 41h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 95¢ $112 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 95¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,977.63 · official $27,142.79 (match) · 3500 history records