trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +13.7% | +2.9% | 67% | 67% | +2.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +13.7% | +2.9% | 67% | 67% | +2.7% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +8.3% | -2.1% | 74% | 37% | -6.4% |
| all | 20 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 75% | 35% | -6.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -2.4% | 35% | -6.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -11.7% | 25% | -15.5% |
| 15% | -20.2% | 20% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -28.1% | 15% | -31.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $291 | $290 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 80¢ | 80¢ | $104 | $103 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 67¢ | 64¢ | $100 | $97 | −$4 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $56 | −$56 | -100% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 22 | $174 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $106 | −$105 | -99% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $102 | +$68 | +67% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $103 | +$67 | +65% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $34 | +$36 | +105% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $316 | +$84 | +27% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $72 | +$33 | +46% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $318 | +$47 | +15% |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Apr 30 | $14,090 | +$745 | +5% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Apr 23 | $5,000 | −$15 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Apr 23 | $9,972 | +$359 | +4% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 23 | $21,445 | −$68 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 23 | $15,000 | +$1,999 | +13% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 23 | $20,514 | +$55 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 06 | $10,325 | +$211 | +2% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Apr 06 | $14,999 | +$581 | +4% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | Apr 06 | $20,196 | +$204 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Apr 06 | $20,000 | +$985 | +5% |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | Mar 23 | $10,938 | +$115 | +1% |