Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7D 0x7d23…2c0f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$99 (+50%) realized +$129 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$44
crypto 17% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +61.8% +46.3% 78% 78% +53.1%
≤30d 9 +61.8% +46.3% 78% 78% +53.1%
≤90d 9 +61.8% +46.3% 78% 78% +53.1%
all 9 +61.8% +46.3% 78% 78% +53.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.3% 78% +53.1%
10% +32.3% 78% +38.5%
15% +19.6% 78% +25.1%
20% +7.8% 56% +12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.56 per $1 lost it wins $7.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 2¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$24 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$17 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$10 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.16 · official $28.16 (match) · 19 history records